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Breaking down the BCS
Comprehensive predictions for the major bowls of the NCAA
By Ken Ryan
Capital One Bowl (Orlando, Fla.; Jan. 1)
No. 13 Arkansas vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
This game provides an opportunity for the 11-1 Badgers to validate what they accomplished in the regular season. Despite the fact UW’s only loss on the year was to No. 3 Michigan, the Badgers haven’t gotten the nationwide respect they deserve.
On the other hand, Arkansas was the hot item of the SEC, shocking the college football landscape by winning its first seven conference games. However, after back-to-back losses to LSU and Florida (in the SEC title game), the Razorbacks come into the Capital One Bowl with little momentum. Arkansas does have one of the top running games in college football, with two 1,000-yard rushers, headlined by sophomore sensation Darren McFadden.
Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, it won’t be enough. Wisconsin’s ranks second in the nation in scoring defense, and John Stocco and P.J. Hill will make a sufficient amount of plays on for the Badgers’ offense to cap Big Ten coach of the year Bret Bielema’s first season as UW’s head coach.
Wisconsin will finish with a 12-1 record and top five ranking and have them ranked perhaps in the preseason top 10 next year with 14 of 22 starters returning. Too much is on the line for the Badgers to lose.
Prediction: Badgers 27, Arkansas 17
BCS Championship Game (Glendale, Ariz.; Jan. 8)
No. 1 Ohio St. vs. No. 2 Florida
Ohio State has held the nation’s top ranking from the moment the season started. And with likely Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith at quarterback, it’s unlikely that’s about to change.
The only thing that will challenge the Buckeyes is a 53-day layoff between their monumental 42-39 win over No. 2 Michigan in the season finale and this game.
Florida, 12-1 champions of the SEC, narrowly made the title game over Michigan. The Gators’ luck ends here.
Going against the Buckeye’s No. 1 scoring defense, Florida quarterback Chris Leak will struggle. Florida will keep it close going into the third quarter, but Jim Tressel’s club pulls away big in the second half and wins the national title for the second time in five seasons.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Florida 17
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif.; Jan. 1)
No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 7 USC
Michigan believes it should be playing Ohio State for the national title. USC shocked the world by losing to UCLA in the season finale and blowing its chance at playing for the national title.
Michigan’s defense will struggle to shut down USC’s passing game with excellent receivers Duane Jarrett and Steve Smith. They will try to pound tailback Michael Hart at the USC defense all day to slow the game down. It will set up Wolverines quarterback Chad Henne for play-action passing as he takes advantage on some big play opportunities.
In what will be the most entertaining of all the BCS games, Michigan wins one for the Big Ten Conference with a late field goal.
Prediction: Michigan 34, USC 31
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ-New Year’s Day)
No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Boise State
Boise State cruised to an undefeated season. The Sooners hope to have back running back Adrian Peterson, an early-season Heisman candidate who was lost midway through the year due to a broken collarbone. Expect Peterson to put up solid numbers and the Big Twelve champion Sooners to limit stud Boise State quarterback Jared Zabransky.
Prediction: Oklahoma 23, Boise State 14
Orange Bowl (Miami, FL-January 2nd)
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 15 Wake Forest
Wake Forest was the Cinderella story of the ACC, as it unexpectedly won its league. However, it is 98th in the nation in scoring offense. The Big East champion Cardinals are third. Louisville would be playing in the BCS championship game had they not blown an 18-point lead to Rutgers. This game is a classic BCS mismatch.
Prediction: Louisville 45, Wake Forest 13
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, LA-January 3rd)
No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 LSU
LSU is playing as well any team in college football right now. It is highly questionable if Notre Dame should even be in this game, considering they’ve lost two times this season by 20 or more points.
LSU quarterback DeMarcus Russell will light it up for the Tigers, who are essentially playing a home game. The Tigers defense will do enough to shut down Brady Quinn, playing in his final game as Notre Dame’s quarterback.
Prediction: LSU 31, Norte Dame 20
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