This past year in movies was arguably the best of the decade with quality across the board, both in big-budget blockbusters like “Avengers Endgame,” “1917” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” as well as smaller films like “Parasite” and Little Women.” Streaming movies got their seat at the table as well with films like “Marriage Story” and “The Irishman.” Best of all, there was very little in the way of Oscar-bait such as last year’s “Green Book” and “Bohemian Rhapsody.” With so many quality films, it feels like this year’s Oscars will be much harder to predict than in previous years. Since the Academy voters are both predictable in what they like, while also being prone to give awards to films in various categories that make people scratch their heads, I will predict who and what I think the Academy will pick in each category, then give my own personal pick of who or what should win which may or not be the same as what the Academy will pick. We will start with:
Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker, 1917, Avengers: Endgame, The Lion King, The Irishman
What Will Win: Avengers: Endgame. The majority of these movies do have tremendous visual effects from the photo-realistic flora and fauna of “The Lion King” to the awe-inspiring effects work seen in both “Rise of Skywalker” and “Endgame.” Meanwhile, there’s “The Irishman” whose standout effect of digitally de-aging its actors simply fell flat for me and a lot of other viewers and crossed into uncanny valley territory much like “Star Wars: Rogue One” did when it was released. With that being said, I feel like “Avengers: Endgame” has this award in the bag. This movie is 90 percent visual effects and since visual effects are the only award it’s nominated for I feel like Academy voters will feel inclined to give some recognition to the highest-grossing movie of all-time.
What Should Win: Avengers: Endgame.
Best Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite
What Will Win: Parasite. Film Editing is probably one of the hardest awards to analyze because it’s difficult to see what voters are looking for in a winner and what separates the nominees from each other. I know when I watch a movie I only notice the editing of a film when it doesn’t work, like when a cut happens too soon and messes up the pacing of a film. The best editors only do something when it serves the story, not just because something will look cool for the sake of it. I will say that none of the nominated films commits these errors, but one did rise above the rest and that film is “Parasite.” Like everything else in the film, the editing of “Parasite” has an exacting purpose: only focus on serving the story and nothing else. Every cut is meant to show the viewer something new, or strengthen something already shown. While the other nominated films in any other year would be deserving winners, “Parasite” simply rises above them all.
What Should Win: Parasite. One would say the editing is metaphorical.
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari, 1917, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
What Will Win and What Should Win: 1917. Sound Editing and Sound Mixing are probably the most confusing awards for most people watching the Academy Awards to tell apart from each other, kind of like Best Song and Record of the Year for the Grammy’s. Here’s the difference between the two: Sound Editing is meant to recognize the best sound design/effects in film (think foley work like people stomping and banging random objects together to make sounds), whereas Sound Mixing is meant to recognize the film that best layers all of the sounds you hear in a film like the sound effects, the film score, and dialogue. Hopefully, this explanation makes it clearer for you and you can now brag about it to your uncaring friends. Meanwhile, “1917” will win this award purely because war films typically tend to make their living in both Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. People love explosions. “Ford v Ferrari” probably deserves it just as much as “1917” because people generally love not just explosions but loud noises in general, but it’s hard to take this award away from “1917.” Both the one-take nature of the movie and the sound effects made “1917” one of my favorite movie theater experiences of all-time.
Best Sound Mixing: Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, 1917, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
What Will Win and Should Win: 1917. I foresee “1917” sweeping both sound awards. The sheer technical will-power needed for this film to exist is simply too much for voters to ignore and therefore it will probably win.
Best Costume Design: Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman
What Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. This is probably the first difficult award to predict as all of the films nominated are period pieces and the academy loves period pieces. My first instinct is to go with the Costumers Guild and pick “Jojo Rabbit” which won the Costumers Guild Award for Best Period Design this year, but I’m not sure it will end up faring the same in the Oscars. The costumes in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “Joker” and “The Irishman” were excellent and served their films well. I will say more about “Little Women” below. But when I try to read the minds of Academy voters, I see “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” winning this year with how accurate it recreated not only how that era in time looked, but how it felt as well.
What Should Win: Little Women. If I could, I would give “Little Women” and “Parasite” all of the awards, but to my great disappointment, I cannot. Instead, I must stick to the categories that they were nominated in. Here is my monologue on why “Little Women” should win Best Costume Design (and also every other award). Generally speaking, costume designs in period pieces that have won this award previously like “Anna Karenina,” have felt stuffy and heavy. The dresses and suits actors are forced to wear look so uncomfortable and miserable to wear. Like, I get it, it was horrible being a European aristocrat. Poor Kiera Knightley.
What makes “Little Women’s” costume design so special is that its costumes don’t make its characters feel nailed to the ground. Take for instance the scene at the beginning of the movie where Jo March runs through the streets of 1860’s New York City after selling one of her stories. Her clothes flow with her, actually allowing her to run. Besides adapted screenplay, this is “Little Women’s” best chance for an award and it deserves ALL OF THEM.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, 1917
What Will Win and Should Win: Bombshell. Another difficult award to predict this year, as every movie nominated besides perhaps “1917” succeeds in transforming its actors into completely different people and only one of them is a fantasy/sci-fi movie in “Maleficent.” My gut says it’s between “Joker,” “Judy” and “Bombshell,” with “Bombshell” taking it for making Charlize Theron a near-perfect clone of Megyn Kelly. It also has won similar awards at the BAFTA’s and swept up every award at the Make-Up and Hairstyling Guild Awards.
Best Cinematography: The Irishman, 1917, Joker, The Lighthouse, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
What Will and Should Win: 1917. This is Roger Deakins’ award to lose this year, which is weird to say considering how many times before his win for “Blade Runner 2049” he was shafted by voters. But as mentioned before the one-take nature of the film is Roger Deakins at the absolute height of his powers. The amount of planning and technical know-how that was needed of Deakins in order to make director Sam Mendes’ dream of a one-take war film possible is simply too much for voters to ignore. This is the easiest award to predict so far. All of the other nominees are deserving in their own right especially “The Lighthouse’s” throwback to 1930’s moviemaking with its usage of 35mm black-and-white cameras.
Best Production Design: Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit
What Will Win: 1917. As you can probably tell, it’s looking like “1917” will be the big winner at this year’s awards, due mostly to its technical strengths, which production design falls under. I know I sound like a broken record, but my god: the amount of planning needed not only with the camera, but the sets as well with “1917” is mind-boggling even a movie of its size. No set is used twice, and every set must have had to take into consideration how long the dialogue between characters would take in order to make sure each set would be big enough to accommodate it.
What Should Win: Parasite. Like I said before “Parasite” and “Little Women” deserve all of the awards, but especially in the case of production design for “Parasite.” The designs of the poor Kim family’s dirty, stink-bug ridden sub-basement and the wealthy Park family’s modern, sleek looking house are so meticulous and well-thought-out that not awarding them just feels wrong.
Best Original Song: Rocketman, Toy Story 4, Frozen II, Harriet, Breakthrough
What Will Win: Rocketman. My reasoning behind “Rocketman” is simple: Old people love Elton John and the Academy is filled with old people. I honestly don’t have strong feelings about any of the other songs so we’ll move along to the next and one of my favorite categories this year…
Best Original Score: Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
What Will Win: Joker. This is a closer race than it initially seems. I am going to go with the heavy favorite in Hildur Guðnadóttir’s atmospheric score for “Joker,” which has pretty much swept up all of the other equivalent awards at prior award shows. But it would not surprise me if the Academy decides to buck the trend and award to Thomas Newman’s departure from his normal style in his heavy, anthemic work for “1917.” As much as I want John Williams to end his time as the heart of the Star Wars saga with a win, I feel his score for “Rise of Skywalker” just didn’t measure up to his previous work.
What Should Win: Little Women. Alexandre Desplat did a superb job with his score for “Little Women.” It is both dense and light on its feet. Just go listen to the opening track on the soundtrack to hear what I mean. It masterfully communicates the joy and sadness the March sisters encounter without being too sentimental or romantic. And even when it does go the romantic route in the aptly named track, “It’s Romance,” you end up not caring about it because it’s such a fun track to listen to. ALSO, LITTLE WOMEN DESERVES ALL THE AWARDS.
Alright, so I’m going to be brutally honest in saying that I have not had the opportunity to watch the short films nominated for this year’s Academy Awards. But guess what, neither has the vast majority of the Academy and they are the ones actually voting so…
Best Live-Action Short Film: Brotherhood, Nefta Football Club, The Neighbors Window, Saria, A Sister
What Will Win: From what I’ve seen “Brotherhood” might take it because of its heavy subject matter, but I would not be shocked if “Nefta Football Club” wins it because of the exact opposite.
Best Animated Short Film: Kitbull, Hair Love, Dcera, Memorable, Sister
What Will and Should Win: Kitbull. Alright, so I may have lied in saying I haven’t seen any of the nominated short films but thanks to the power of Disney Plus and YouTube, I was able to watch the presumed favorites in “Kitbull” and “Hair Love” while writing this because I felt bad. Well, “Kitbull” destroyed me emotionally with its tale of a friendship between a stray kitten and an abused pitbull and then “Hair Love” destroyed me emotionally again with its tale of a father having to do his daughter’s hair for the first time. Now I’m sure the other nominees are deserving in their own right, but for me, it comes down to these two short films with “Kitbull” taking it by the slightest of margins.
Best Documentary Short Film: Learning to Skate in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), In the Absence, Life Overtakes Me, St. Louis Superman, Walk Run Cha-Cha
What Will Win: Learning to Skate in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl). I’m going to go with the bookies on this one and say the tale of young girls learning to skateboard in war-torn Afghanistan will walk the winner in this category.
Best Documentary Feature: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland
What Will and Should Win: For Sama. This is a great group of nominees for Best Documentary Feature. I think it will be a tight race between “For Sama,” “American Factory” and “Honeyland,” with “For Sama” winning for its emotionally gripping tale of a Syrian woman trying to care for her newborn daughter in the middle of the country’s civil war.
Best International Feature: Pain and Glory, Les Miserables, Parasite, Corpus Christi, Honeyland
What Will and Should Win: Parasite. This is the easiest choice out of all of the awards. It’s “Parasite’s” award to lose.
Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 4, Klaus, I Lost My Body, Missing Link, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
What Will and Should Win: Klaus. As is the theme of this year’s Academy Awards there is no easy pick amongst this year’s nominees for animated feature. “Klaus” deserves the win not only for its reimagining of the origin story for Santa Claus but also for bringing back 2-D animation with its own stylish twist. I liked “Toy Story 4” a lot and felt it proved its existence with it’s more meta take on what being a toy is like in that universe, but at the same time feel like Klaus deserves it this year.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, The Two Popes, Joker
What Will Win: Jojo Rabbit. This has been Taika Waititi’s year as it won the Writers Guild of America award for Best Adapted Screenplay along with the BAFTA equivalent. Now I wasn’t the biggest fan of “Jojo Rabbit” as I felt it was simply good rather than the great it could have been had it taken more leaps with its subject matter. Other strong contenders for this award are “The Irishman” and “The Two Popes.”
What Should Win: Little Women. HERE WE GO AGAIN. Since Greta Gerwig was somehow not nominated for Best Director, her only chance to win an award this year is in adapted screenplay. Now, “Little Women” has been adapted seven times for the silver screen with the most recent adaptation prior to the 2019 film releasing in 1994. To completely blow up and then reconstruct the narrative of Louise May Alcott’s beloved novel as Gerwig does with her film’s use of a non-linear narrative is astounding. The film’s use of people talking over each other is so cleverly included in the actual script, it should win for that alone.
Best Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Marriage Story, Knives Out, Parasite, 1917
What Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Original Screenplay this year is filled with quality nominees, but this is Quentin Tarantino’s award no question about it. His fairy-tale about a declining actor and his stuntman backdropped by the Manson family has too much momentum behind it to be stopped.
What Should Win: Parasite. The best movie of the year weirdly enough has the best screenplay. Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won’s screenplay just deserves to win, plain and simple. The intricacies of the film’s twists and turns require meticulous planning starting on the page. Without a tight script, the movie probably downgrades itself from an all-time classic to merely good or great.
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, Margot Robbie, Florence Pugh, Kathy Bates
Who Will and Should Win: Laura Dern. Dern has swept up all of the other equivalent awards in this category at other award shows for her work in “Marriage Story” as divorce attorney Nora Fanshaw and it will be no different at the Academy Awards. She does an excellent job playing one of the most hated professions in America whilst also being sympathetic as only Dern can.
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt. This is Brad Pitt’s year for his performance as stuntman Cliff Booth in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” Like Tarantino for screenplay, there is no stopping Brad Pitt from winning unless there is a major upset from either Joe Pesci or Anthony Hopkins for their work in the “The Irishman” and “The Two Popes” respectively. While it does seem Pitt is just playing himself in this movie, you can tell just how much he’s having and it seems he will be awarded for it this Sunday.
Who Should Win: Joe Pesci. I love Pesci’s performance as mobster Russel Bufalino in “The Irishman.” Compared to his other performances as mobsters in prior Scorsese movies, “Casino” and “Goodfellas,” in which the characters he played were very loud and boisterous, his performance as Bufalino is understated, quiet, somehow more threatening than his performance of Tommy DeVito in “Goodfellas.” And look, he deserves something for coming out of retirement.
Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Cynthia Ervio, Saoirse Ronan, Charlize Theron, Renee Zellweger
Who Will and Should Win: Renee Zellweger. This is as locked in as any award can be, Zelweger’s performance as actress Judy Garland in “Judy” is too beloved to be denied and has won every equivalent award at prior award shows. Best Actress and Best Actor are probably the easiest to predict this year as there are the only awards with overwhelming favorites. Shout outs to Johansson and Ronan for their performances in “Marriage Story” and “Little Women” which would have won in any other year were it not for Zelweger’s performance.
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Leonardo DiCaprio, Adam Driver, Jonathan Pryce, Antonio Banderas
Who Will and Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix. Regardless of how you feel about “Joker” as a movie, you can’t deny that Phoenix saves the day with his transformative and tortured performance as Arthur Fleck. Without his performance, the film would have found itself in the trash heap alongside “Suicide Squad” and “Batman v Superman.” Shout outs to Adam Driver and Jonathan Pryce for their performances in “Marriage Story” and “The Two Popes” along with DiCaprio’s performance in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Best Director: Sam Mendes, Greta Ger- I mean Todd Phillips, Bong Joon-ho, Quentin Tarantino, Martin Scorsese
Who Will Win: Sam Mendes. Mendes won the Director’s Guild of America and Golden Globe award for Best Direction, which makes him the prohibitive favorite in this category. His magnum opus in “1917” is a deserving win for him as the film is to technically heavy and precise that a lesser director would have been too overwhelmed. But I would not be surprised to see the Academy again go against the grain and give the award to Tarantino, but that would be an upset. Instead his closest competition comes from…
Who Should Win: Bong Joon-ho. The best movie of the year deserves to win Best Director. It’s that simple. “Parasite” is a master working at the height of his powers. Everything in the movie works and works well. Nothing shows up on screen without it mattering. Every character, piece of dialogue, prop, etc. has a purpose in driving the story forward.
And the big one.
Best Picture: Ford v Ferrari, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Marriage Story, The Two Popes, Joker, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit
What Will Win: 1917. What started out awards season-wise as a wide-open race for Best Picture closed quickly as “1917” won every equivalent award including the Producer’s Guild Award for Best Picture, which is a pretty good indicator for winning Best Picture.
What Should Win: Parasite. The best film of the year deserves to win… best film of the year. I’ve already said everything you need to know about why “Parasite” should win every award. If I could I would give Best Picture to both it and “Little Women.”
As a bonus…
What Absolutely Should Not Win: Joker. Please no.
So there you have it, every award is predicted and will obviously be correct, you’ll see. Props to anyone who actually read this monstrosity and didn’t just scroll to the end. Now you’ll be able to surprise people with your sudden newfound ability to talk about this year’s Academy Awards.