Overview: Pumpkin spice returned. The cooler temperatures did not. Welcome Milwaukee to your Fall Climate Outlook 2026.
Warmer temperatures in the Midwest should not come as a surprise. The Climate Prediction Center is calling for a “very strong El Niño” during fall. El Niño is a climatological pattern characterized by above-average temperatures in the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific. From these anomalies, the jet stream above strengthens, especially when trekking north such as right now. Riding on these winds, warmer temperatures occur. Looking forward though, we do have some shifting weather.
What is a Fall Climate Outlook?
This is a seasonal forecast whose purpose is to predict weather within the bounds of meteorological fall: September 1 through November 30. Just like our other forecasts, this is broken into sections. Instead of days, however, the sections are months. Subsections look at temperatures and precipitation. As we look back at historical averages and trends, outlook models and climate guidance shape these into a trustworthy forecast for the season.
September
Temperatures: September 2026 shapes up to feature above-average temperatures, especially with a start in the mid-80s for a high. During the first half of the month, the Pacific Jet Stream forges northward from Los Angeles to Minneapolis, causing temperatures to sit significantly higher than the normal 70s we usually see. But following some large storm systems, we will get previews of the cooler weather ahead. If strong enough, mid-month storms could send premature 60-degree highs our way. At the end of September, temperatures should cool off a bit, highs mostly staying below 80, hopefully within the 60s.
Precipitation: Due to the enhanced Pacific Jet Stream from El Niño and its placement this fall, Milwaukee should receive near to slightly above its fair share of precipitation: 3.16 inches. This likely manifests through stronger thunderstorms though. Wisconsin over doubled its yearly average tornado count this year, so one cannot be too cautious this fall. Wisconsin witnessed a fall tornado in 8 out of the past 10 years, and with a strong El Niño and transitioning jet streams, Wisconsin could likely see another before the end of the year. Stay vigilant and keep up to date with your weather.
October
Temperatures: October 2026 again finds slightly above-average temperatures. The Polar Jet Stream and Pacific Jet Stream likely stay close together like September, as the El Niño strengthens. The CPC calls for a 95% chance for a “very strong El Niño” within the October-November-December months. Likely peaking in November, October sets the stage. Temperatures struggle to fall consistently within the 60s early on and later might spike out of the 50s. This bodes nicely for our fall foliage, allowing for colorful trees especially in late October.
Precipitation: Totals sink slightly below the average of 2.78 inches with the increase of the El Niño winds. This does not mean October will be without storms, however. I would expect one or two more severe storms before the end of the year. Despite probably seeing frost mid-month and having our first freeze later on, the first snowflakes should stay away until November.
November
Temperatures: November 2026 holds the peak of the El Niño, thus keeping temperatures elevated above normal. Temperatures stay more near 50 for most of the month, though no doubt freezing temperatures enter from time to time. Upon these cold fronts, the snow enters in, teasing the wintertime ahead. Expect more significant snows toward the end of the month, though.
Precipitation: Talking about precipitation, Milwaukee usually gets 2.24 inches in November. This year, Milwaukee likely receives below-average amounts. As the Polar Jet Stream inches southward to dip to our east more often, storm systems only make a rare appearance. One concern of mine this upcoming snowy season is the probability of lake-effect and -enhanced snowfall due to a warm lake and a high pressure to our east more often. Further down the road, it looks as though the El Niño weakens too! Milwaukee will need to stay tuned to the weather!