In 1989, the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics warned of a potential arms race in college athletics, especially in football and basketball. The Knight Commission proposed a solution – a complete overhaul of college athletics to focus on three main goals: academic integrity, financial integrity and independent certification. While the Knight Commission recommendations had some initial success, in recent years, the commission’s impact has diminished due to the ever-increasing commercialization of college athletics. Realistically, based on the events of this fall, the Knight Commission is on life support, and money rules the day. The collegiate arms race is no longer just for athletes, but also for better facilities and big-name coaches.
The demand for top-notch coaches combined with scheduling games years in advance creates a situation where it is impossible to determine a team’s future strength of schedule. This not only further complicates the playoff picture but also creates challenges to recruiting top-level talent. On top of this, the NCAA’s decision to allow athletes to market name, image, and likeness (NIL) rights has changed the recruiting landscape as recruits now may be looking to take their talents to larger markets and conferences to cash in on their NIL rights before turning pro.
While change is inevitable, these changes are seemingly happening at a pace that is unprecedented and unrealistic to sustain. In an effort to control what can be controlled, schools have begun a bidding war for high-profile coaches. This has reverberated through the college coaching ranks and led to numerous coaches changing schools.
The first sign of upheaval was the contract extension offered to Mel Tucker, the head coach of the Michigan State Spartans. Tucker – in his second year with Sparty – received a ten-year contract worth $95 million in order to keep him from being pilfered by other schools. Consequently, teams requiring a new head coach were on notice that they would need to dig deep into their bank accounts to land a quality candidate.
It was not long before aggressive poaching began. Suddenly, former Notre Dame Head Coach Brian Kelly was relocating to Louisiana State University in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) for a ten-year $95 million contract. Kelly’s unexpected departure set in motion a chain of events that is as confusing as it is complex.
Within the last week, Notre Dame’s Defensive Coordinator Marcus Freeman has been named Head Coach, Lincoln Riley traded the dusty Oklahoma terrain for the sunny beaches of Los Angeles (USC), Mario Cristobal left the sequoia forests of Oregon for the palm trees of Miami, and Brent Venables exited the palmetto shores at Clemson for Lincoln Riley’s old gig as Head Coach in Norman. Certainly, more coaching changes are inevitable before the beginning of next season.
The Irish players and fanbase displayed overwhelming support for Freeman’s hiring, which more than likely put pressure on Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick to announce the decision as quickly as he did. At 35, Freeman is the youngest Head Coach hired at Notre Dame in over 60 years. Notre Dame is preparing for a bowl game this winter (Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma State), as are seven of ND’s opponents from this season – yet critics still claim Notre Dame has a handpicked and easy schedule.
Looking into Notre Dame’s future schedule, they play USC every year for the foreseeable future, a home/away against Ohio State and Clemson over the next two years, Miami (FL) in 2024 and ‘25, and resume their 120-year-old rivalry against Michigan State in 2026 and ‘27. They will also play a “COVID-19 makeup” game against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in 2026.
With top-level opponents on the schedule over the next 5 years, Notre Dame has the potential to return to the playoffs with marquee wins over prestigious programs. They also may play the role of the spoiler by keeping these teams out of the playoffs or become a “kingmaker” by losing to any of these teams. Some would argue that Notre Dame played the kingmaker role this season by losing to Cincinnati and propelling them in the College Football Playoffs.
Additionally, with more games scheduled against Big 10 Conference teams over the next few years, Notre Dame has the potential to keep these long-time rivals out of the playoff picture. Still, that will not be a simple task because the Big 10 is considered by many to be one of the more competitive conferences.
Nonetheless, even the competition and tradition of the Big 10 may not be enough to keep the conference together. The financial pull of the SEC may be enough to eventually draw some of the larger names like Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State away. This, in part, is why the Big 10, Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and Pacific-12 Conference (Pac-12) have agreed to form an alliance rather than potentially fighting over the leftover teams that aren’t pillaged by the SEC.
With Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC in 2025, the Big 12 Conference has had a different response to this situation. They added independent BYU and three teams from the American Conference, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston, to bolster their competition.
However, unless the college football playoffs expand to include a conference winner from all of the Power 5 conferences, we may see the eventual formation of two super conferences. In this scenario, the Big 12 would be caught in the middle of these super conferences, and likely hung out to dry.
Some speculate with the formation of super conferences that if the SEC gets large enough – currently boasting 14 schools which will become 16 with Texas and Oklahoma – they may decide to break away from the current NCAA playoff format and have their own national championship. This would leave teams in the Big 10/ACC/Pac-12 alliance constantly on the outside looking in.
At Wisconsin, Paul Chryst will remain the head coach, but the changing landscape may eventually test his loyalty. Madison is a small market compared to many of the schools in the SEC and other major conferences in college football. This may limit the amount of NIL money athletes can make while in school, affecting the level of recruits they can bring in. Yet, a super conference including the present Big 10 schools might help Wisconsin to remain relevant in a new college athletic landscape.
Conversely, a super conference would be a significant challenge to Notre Dame’s status as an independent. For years, Notre Dame has been adamant about remaining independent and not joining a conference for football, in part, due to their NBC broadcasting contract from which they currently receive 100% of the revenue. If they joined a conference, they would have to split the revenue evenly amongst the other teams in the league.
Notre Dame does have a big enough brand to potentially stave off the side effects of the formation of super conferences and continue to sign highly ranked recruits. However, with conferences getting larger, their ability to schedule competitive games every season will be drastically impacted as teams in larger super conferences won’t be able to play as many non-conference games. In this rapidly changing college football landscape, if Notre Dame remains independent, they may never get the chance to win another national championship.
Schools like Wisconsin and Notre Dame have proven themselves to be football powerhouses capable of pumping out NFL-caliber talent. Nonetheless, conference changes, combined with the inevitability of NIL deals being larger in bigger markets, may starve them of the talent they currently enjoy. If two super conferences emerge, an SEC and Big 10/ACC/Pac-12 alliance, with current Big 12 teams divided between the two, schools like Wisconsin and Notre Dame may never return to the national prominence that presently benefits their recruiting.
While the future is impossible to predict, the metaphorical train may have already left the station. By adding Oklahoma and Texas, the SEC may have stamped their ticket as the dominant conference in college football. These moves may force other schools and conferences to show their cards and follow suit, leading to a complete overhaul of the college football landscape.
For now, the arms race that the Knight Commission predicted continues with no end in sight. While college football has been a golden goose for some well-known colleges, it has also placed a tremendous financial burden on others. Should the trend of increased commercialization continue, or the super conferences come to fruition, the larger universities will continue to dominate to the detriment of their smaller counterparts.
At the end of the day, college athletics should focus on the athletes and not on the colleges or the athletic programs. At some point, College Presidents, Athletic Directors and Conference Commissioners will need to assess whether athletes are in college to learn or to audition for professional sports.
Perhaps someone should dust off the Knight Commission’s report.
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