As we trudge through the winter wonderland of southeastern Wisconsin, snow greets us everywhere we turn, clinging to trees and turning the dark waters of the Milwaukee River to a tinted tan. With holiday travel in full swing, knowledgeability of weather conditions becomes a top priority. To help you and your winter plans, we are proud to present our winter climate outlook.
What is a Winter Climate Outlook?
This is a seasonal forecast for Milwaukee, Wisconsin, aimed at predicting weather within the bounds of meteorological winter: December 1 through February 28. Just like our other forecasts, this will be broken into sections, but instead of days, the sections will be months. Looking back at historical averages and trends, outlook models and climatological input aid in shaping a trustworthy 2025-2026 winter forecast.
December: Shoveling our way out of November which tripled its historical snowfall average of 2.5 inches, weather scientists predict La Niña’s impact continues into December. La Niña is a climatological pattern characterized with temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere below average in the Pacific Ocean. Commonly, it induces above average precipitation within the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley areas. Coupled with an active polar vortex, snowfall achieves the usual 10 inches. The polar vortex undulating to the north holds its course and prolongs the freezing weather through the month. Although sub-freezing high temperatures normally begin in January, December freezes early, as highs will rarely see 30, and subzero lows will scatter throughout the month. Clouds and wind will then remain a close companion into January.
January: The Climate Prediction Center believes with increasing certainty that La Niña factors weaken from January into March. During the changing climatological patterns, weather systems follow a generally more eastern course compared to December. This sends the above-average precipitation towards the Ohio River Vally and Appalachians. Despite this, precipitation is free to trend above or below recorded averages of 15 inches of snowfall and 1.6 inches of other precipitation, but expect more emphasis on below average. If this happens, though more sunshine and tempered winds naturally could follow, due to the proximity, we should not these averages to depart too noticeably. On top of La Niña weakening, the polar vortex retreats slightly, causing temperatures to rise higher than historical highs just above 30 and lows just below 20. Warmer temperatures spells slushy conditions for Wisconsin, but this could quickly revert back to ice in February.
February: While La Niña fades, the polar vortex might be scripted for a second appearance within the Great Lakes. Temperatures thus drop back to their averages of highs in the mid-30s and lows around 20 and then drop further. Upon the hasty return of the colder air mass, winds could increase along with clouds. Opposing the fluctuating streams of atmospheric weather, total precipitation trends stay relatively average. Usually, Milwaukee measures a total snowfall of a foot, whereas rain measures in at 1.6 inches. However, boosted snowfall remains possible from the anticipated freeze decreases liquid precipitation totals. This would average total precipitation in the long term.
February remains a couple months away though, so stay safe and up to date with your forecasts as always. As an additional precaution, the NWS created infographics to educate the community about how to be safe this winter season. You can follow this hyperlink: Prepare! Don’t Let a Winter Storm Take You by Surprise , or visit the website at https://www.weather.gov/safety/winter-before.
