Welcome to summer! It has been a wild past few months weather-wise. From tornado warnings and one of the wettest Milwaukee Aprils on record, to an unusually dry May, it has been quite the spring. Now as summer begins, El Niño oscillations begin to dominate trends in the weather, a flip from the previous La Niña effects experienced in the spring. In light of the possibility of more interesting weather, we want to keep our readers prepared. So, we’ve been compiling data to provide the UWM Post with a Summer Climate Outlook for 2026.
So, what is a Summer Climate Outlook?
This is a seasonal forecast whose purpose is to predict weather within the bounds of meteorological summer: June 1 through August 31. Just like our other forecasts, this is broken into sections. Instead of days, however, the sections are months. As we look back at historical averages and trends, outlook models and climate guidance shape these into a trustworthy forecast for the season.
June: Despite a heatwave in first two weeks, June highs prove slightly chillier than the usual 77 degrees, averaging around 72 degrees. Lows for the beginning of the month will likely trend toward the lower 50s, bottoming out at 53 degrees. As time goes on, these temperatures are expected to increase. This means that by the end of the month, anticipate daily highs closer to the 80s and lows of 63. June is historically one of the wettest months in Milwaukee, but data shows a trend towards less than the average 4 and a half inches. June also marks the peak of tornado season, so Wisconsin’s probability of severe weather increases. Otherwise, on average, June will be mostly sunny and tepid as far as summer months go.
July: As we look forward to celebrating the United States’ 250th anniversary, July seems pretty average. Following June’s trend, tornado chances are high in the first half of July. That said, there some evidence noted some elevated severe weather conditions later, potentially until August. Coming off of June’s below average precipitation though, Milwaukee receives some deserved rain. Expect July to stay near its average of 3 and a half inches. July also sticks around its average for temperatures. Daily highs for the month sit in the lower 80s, while the daily lows hang around 64 degrees.
August: August temperatures might be more variable than usual, due to a trend towards a potentially strong El Niño. An El Niño summer commonly finds below average temperatures for the Great Lakes, but due to the transition period, we could see more fluctuation of temperatures. At the beginning of the month, highs generally remain in the lower 80s and later begin to rest in the upper 70s. Lows will be more consistent, averaging around 64 degrees all of August. As previously stated, there is evidence of severe weather continuing to affect Milwaukee throughout August. Precipitation for this month is in line with the average of 3 and a half inches of rain. Although it’s a bit far out to tell anything for certain, noting all of this helps keep us prepared. Stay tuned to your forecasts for your updates on Milwaukee weather!
