No. 1 Green Bay Packers vs No. 6 Los Angeles Rams
Jan. 16, 2021. 3:35 CST. 3:35 CT. Lambeau Field
Overview
The Los Angeles Rams travel to Green Bay for the highly anticipated matchup between the top scoring Green Bay offense and the top tier defense of the Rams. Although Jared Goff and the Rams offense has struggled lately, they were able to build momentum from a 30-20 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Wild Card weekend to bring into Green Bay. Green Bay is coming off a first-round bye and is looking to secure their spot in the NFC Championship game for the second straight year.
3 Keys to victory for Los Angeles:
1) Get pressure on Aaron Rodgers
The Rams had 53 sacks this season which was second most in the NFL. If Aaron Donald and the rest of the defensive line can get to Rodgers, the Rams will have a legitimate chance to slow down the top scoring offense. With Packers All-Pro Left Tackle David Bakhtiari sidelined with a torn ACL, the Rams will likely be sending pressure at Rodgers all game.
2) Slow down Davante Adams
This job is most likely going to be put on the shoulders of Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who is arguably the league’s best cover corner. Ramsey has shut down teams’ top receivers all season but will have his hands full Saturday afternoon while guarding Adams, who recorded 115 catches for 1,374 yards and a league leading 18 touchdowns in just 14 games. This should be a great matchup to watch.
3) Run the ball effectively
With an injured Jared Goff and a banged-up Cooper Kupp, the Rams will have to rely heavily on Cam Akers and the run game if they want to win. Akers racked up 131 rushing yards on 28 carries in the win against Seattle last weekend. The Packers rush defense is around the middle of the pack, allowing 113 rush yards per game. As of late, the Packers run defense has been trending in the right direction and has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since week 12 against Chicago. With that being said, running with Akers 20 plus times seems to be a key to victory for the Rams in order to keep the ball out of Rodgers’ hands.
3 Keys to victory for Green Bay
1) Force Goff to throw the ball
Green Bay’s pass defense has been stingy this year, ranking 7th in the NFL and allowing only 221 passing yards per game. If Green Bay can slow down the ground game of Los Angeles and force Goff to make throws. the Packers may run away with this one. Goff is dealing with a right thumb injury on which he had surgery for on Dec. 28. Goff has also not performed well in his previous two games in cold weather, completing 47% of his passes for a combined zero touchdowns and five interceptions. Stopping the run game and forcing Goff to throw 25-30 times will be a major key to victory for Green Bay.
2) No turnovers on offense
If the Packers play mistake free football, they are almost impossible to beat. With only five interceptions and six fumbles lost on the year, the Pack had the least turnovers offensively in the NFL. Going up against the number one scoring defense of the Rams who have forced 22 turnovers this year will be a tough task for Rodgers and company, but if they are able to play turnover free football, I don’t see how Green Bay loses.
3) Feed Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones has quietly had himself another huge season, rushing for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground as well as two through the air. The Packers are 11-0 this season when Jones gets 15 or more touches in the game, so he is clearly important to their success. Although the Rams run defense has been stout this season, Coach Matt Lafleur should still feed Jones, who will be running behind one of the best offensive lines in football. The numbers don’t lie. If you feed Aaron Jones, you win ball games.
X-factors for Los Angeles
1) Jalen Ramsey
Ramsey will need to be on his A-game to stop Davante Adams, but if he’s able to then that could mean trouble for Green Bay. Green Bay has not had a lot of production from other receivers outside of Davante. If Ramsey locks him down like what he did against D.K. Metcalf in Seattle, it could be a long day for Adams and the Green Bay offense. Ramsey was a First Team All-Pro selection this year.
2) Special Teams
Special Teams play has been a weakness for Green Bay all season, so look for Sean McVay and the Rams to try and exploit that. In a game where the Rams offense may struggle, this could be the area where they make a game changing play in their favor.
3) Jared Goff
Although Goff will be playing with a bum thumb, he may be the most important x-factor for Los Angeles. The Rams are going to need Goff to convert on third downs and make key throws in big situations. If Goff can manage the game and throw on target consistently the Rams should keep this game close. This game could very well come down to a final drive by Goff and the Rams where he will need to step up and make big time throws.
X-factors for Green Bay
1) Green Bay pass catchers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan are going to have to step up and play large roles in the passing game. With Ramsey most likely shadowing Adams, these three will potentially see most of the targets if Adams can’t get open. Tonyan has been a monster in the red zone and Valdes-Scantling has been a solid deep threat with excellent speed for the Packers this season. If the “other guys” in the receiver room can step up, the Packers should be in good shape.
2) Defensive Line
If Green Bay can slow down the run game and get pressure on Goff, it will be a long day for the Rams offense. Stars Kenny Clark and Za’Darius Smith paired with up-and-coming Rashan Gary and newcomer Damon “Snacks” Harrison should be fun to watch. Harrison and Clark are both beefy run stoppers in the middle. Meanwhile, Smith and Gary will look to get after Goff on the edge. If Akers can consistently get to the second level then Green Bay could be in trouble, so they will look to their front four to stuff the run and get after the Quarterback.
3) Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers will likely win Most Valuable Player of the Year, regardless of what happens in the playoffs. He has looked more comfortable than ever in the offense, and finally has home field advantage locked up throughout the playoffs. Rodgers has been on point all year, so you should expect nothing less in this game. If the offensive line holds up and Adams can shake Jalen Ramsey a few times, Rodgers will have another MVP performance and Green Bay will win the game.
My Prediction
With the freezing temperatures at Lambeau on Saturday and the eight to nine thousand fans that will be in attendance cheering for the home team, it’s hard to pick against the Packers. I think the Rams keep it close, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will get it done at home and advance to the NFC Championship game.
Packers 27, Rams 17